Albanese government 1.2 million homes target will fail on location

Anthony Albanese’s National Housing Accord is looking unlikely to meet its core goal of building well-located homes.

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An Albanese government plan to build the nation out of a housing crisis with 1.2 million new, well-located homes by 2029 is at risk of leaving residents with poor school and job access.

New analysis of where the country’s homes are being built contrasted with access to amenities has found that in the lead up to the National Housing Accord being announced housing wasn’t being built at sufficient levels in highly desirable areas.

Analysts reviewing the material believe the five-year timeline of the Accord, a core housing policy for the Albanese government and intended to address Australia’s housing affordability crisis, does not have enough time to change that trajectory.

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A lack of access to jobs and education would be a core failure to the Accord’s goal of well-located homes, which cites a desire to ensure proximity to public transport, amenities and employment.

The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute study revealed the shortfall in well-located homes, as well as warnings major cities still need to conquer issues with noise levels and crime to make high-amenity areas in central locations a winning prospect for residents.

With major industry groups from the Housing Industry Association to Master Builders and the Property Council having forecast the nation will struggle to build even 1 million new homes by 2029, the analysis suggests it also won’t build enough of the homes in the right locations.

AHURI study lead Professor Rachel Ong ViforJ said the nation was “certainly not on track to meet the Accord targets” in raw numbers and there was a risk we wouldn’t be “able to build enough homes in well-located areas”.

“And I think that will affect people of all stages,” Prof Ong ViforJ said.

“When housing is not affordable in well-located areas, we have average wage earners being pushed out into the areas that don’t have as good access to jobs.”

AHURI best and worst locations for new homes in Melbourne.

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AHURI best and worst locations for new homes in Sydney.

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Prof Ong ViforJ said she would be “more confident” in cities like Melbourne and Sydney to meet the second half of the Accord’s goal, but smaller cities like Geelong were not expected to see the substantive and necessary changes in where they were building large numbers of new homes in the near future.

The research found that Sydney had done the best job of linking its new housing supply to high-amenity areas from 2006 to 2021, with more than 46.2 per cent classed as in the top fifth of spots nominated as very well located, a figure that has improved over the 15 years. Just 2.2 per cent were poorly located.

Where Homes Were Built To 2021

Melbourne: 232,179 well or very well located homes;

Sydney: 296,311 well or very well located homes;

Perth: 119,177 well or very well located homes;

Brisbane: 209,391 well or very well located homes;

Adelaide: 42,996 well or very well located homes;

Hobart: 10,208 well or very well located homes;

Canberra: 34,039 well or very well located homes;

Figures track where new housing was added from 2006 to 2021

Source: ABS, AHURI

Most of Melbourne’s new homes were in the third and second best spots, classed as moderately or just well located, though with good overall access to jobs and education compared to other amenities.

It worked out to more than 420,000 homes built with at least moderately good proximity to jobs and education since 2021.

AHURI best and worst locations for new homes in Brisbane.

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AHURI best and worst locations for new homes in Adelaide.

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Brisbane had the best balance of amenity access and proximity to jobs and education, and some of the lowest numbers for homes in poor locations — however built fewer new homes in raw numbers than the nation’s two-biggest capitals.

Adelaide’s most common places to build new homes were in areas with moderate levels of service access and it appeared to get worse over the 15-year timeline.

One of the nation’s smallest capitals, Hobart scored well overall — but was showing signs of increased activity in poorer connected areas.

However, regional city’s like Geelong had 32.8 per cent of homes being built in the second-worst locations assessed for amenities in that region, while about one in four were appearing in such regions in Adelaide.

Prof Ong ViforJ added that with the crisis having developed over decades, the attempt to transform the situation in five years reflected the fact the target had always been labelled “ambitious”.

AHURI best and worst locations for new homes in Geelong.

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AHURI best and worst locations for new homes in Hobart.

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Interviews with developers, planning consultants and community housing providers conducted as part of the research also found a number of obstacles to getting homes in the right location.

Key concerns included unknowns around building costs and particularly where they would exceed the potential sale price, local infrastructure delivery timelines, and combative local councils with West Australian and Victorian developers indicating they would never work with some councils ever again.

Some also indicated they were opting to partner with private schools to get campuses built sooner than government timelines allowed in order to make new housing locations more desirable.

While government overhauls of planning and approvals processes had been steps in the right direction, the economist warned she wasn’t anticipating a “massive improvement” by 2029 for getting homes where they needed to be.

“I don’t think we will see the full impact of these reforms as early as 2029,” Prof Ong ViforJ said.

She added that market forces were also currently working against the building targets, largely due to building cost rises outpacing what buyers were willing to pay amid increasing interest rates and falling established market home values.

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